Pakistan — a South Asian nation of over 240 million people — imports almost all of its crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas from Persian Gulf countries. When the ongoing crisis in the Middle East led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly a quarter of the world's oil and gas flows — the country faced serious exposure. What softened the blow was something nobody in government had engineered: a vast, bottom-up solar revolution built panel by panel on the rooftops of homes, factories, and farms.
The solar surge began around 2022, when a combination of electricity tariffs rising 155% in three years, a sharp drop in Chinese solar panel prices, and a government policy of zero-rated tax on solar imports made rooftop installations the most rational financial decision millions of Pakistanis could make. It was not a climate policy. It was a survival strategy. A joint report by Renewables First, a Pakistani think tank, and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air describes it as one of the fastest consumer-led energy transitions on record.
Cumulative solar panel imports grew from under 1 gigawatt in 2018 to more than 51 gigawatts by early 2026 — with installed capacity estimated at around 27 to 33 gigawatts by early 2025. Fossil fuel imports fell 40% between 2022 and 2024. The report estimates that the solar expansion has helped Pakistan avoid more than $12 billion in oil and gas imports since 2018, and could save a further $6.3 billion by the end of 2026. Solar is projected to supply around one-fifth of Pakistan's total electricity by 2026 — a share that would have been unthinkable five years ago.
The spread of rooftop panels has so far helped the country avoid the power rationing and load-shedding that would almost certainly have been necessary otherwise. Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of CREA, described Pakistan's solar boom as acting like an insurance policy against oil and LNG shocks — one that no government contract or hedging strategy could have replicated at the same speed or scale.
The lesson for energy-vulnerable countries worldwide is striking: sometimes the most effective energy security strategy is the one ordinary people build themselves.